Zimbabwe in numbers: Part 2

Zimbabwe’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been on a decrease since the turn of the 21^st century. As can been seen from the graph, the ratio of exports to GDP has a downward trend after a peak just before the year 2000, implying that both exports and GDP have been declining. To make matters worse, exports have been decreasing at a much faster pace than the decrease in GDP, hence a much steeper downward trend. Starting in 1975, the trade balance (i.e. exports minus imports) has at times been positive suggesting that the country has been exporting much more than it has been buying from other countries. However, after the early 2000s, the trade balance has continuously been negative and reaching as low as -30% of GDP, an indication that the country has been living beyond its means.

The major exports for Zimbabwe are all from the primary industry, mostly mining and agriculture.  Zimbabwe’s top 10 exports and listed in their decreasing order are Gems, precious metals, Tobacco and tobacco scrap, Ores, slag, ash, Iron, steel, Sugar and sugar confectionery, Salt and sulphur, stone, cement, Nickel, Raw hides, skins not fur-skins, leather, Cotton and Wood. Recent policies on the mining sector, for example, the 51% local ownership and the land redistribution strategy have contributed to a dramatic decrease in this export base.

On the other hand, given a decline in output in manufacturing and primary industries, imports have surged. The major imports for Zimbabwe are Mineral fuels including oil, Cereals, Machinery including computers, Vehicles, Electrical Equipment, Pharmaceuticals, Plastics/plastic articles, Animal/Vegetable fats, oils and waxes, Iron and steel and Other chemicals. 

The graph above shows that, despite the decrease in economic activities in Zimbabwe over the last few decades, foreign direct investment as a proportion of GDP has been on an upward trend reaching its highest in 2015. 

There has been a huge outcry over the decrease in foreign aid to Zimbabwe. A country should be able to generate its resources rather than depend on other countries to fund its recurrent expenditure as this brings with it a lot of problems (which will shall discuss in another article).  From 1965 to Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980, Zimbabwe’s international aid flows were near zero and increased through the early 1990s before declining for a decade until the early 2000s. However, it increased drastically peaking in 2012. The observed increase signifies a 38% increase from the previous peak of 1992.

Website link for Tutsirai Sakutukwa: https://sites.google.com/site/tutsisakutukwa/home

Website link for Marshal Makate: https://econmakfaraim.wordpress.com/

Zimbabwe in numbers: Part 1

Zimbabwe’s Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased from about US$4bn in 1965 to above US$16bn on the turn of the century (adjusted for inflation). The droughts of the early 1980s and early 1990s saw GDP in levels decreasing, however, between early 1980s and 1990s, GDP accelerated significantly. After a couple of wrong policies coupled with mismanagement of the economy, GDP fell by about half (from around US$16bn to about US$8nb) in 9 years to 2008. Economic and political stability that came after the inclusive government saw capacity utilization increasing in nearly all sectors of the economy and with it GDP increased significantly from a low of about US$8bn in 2008 to about US$14bn in 2013 and it has stagnated thereafter.

If the Zimbabwean income, measured by GDP, is to be equally divided amongst all Zimbabwean we will get what we call GDP per capita (income per person). GDP per capita was at its pick in 1974 at about US$1,400 per person per annum.  Between this period and the year 2000, GDP per capita revolved between US$1,100 and below US1,400. After 2000, this income per person decreased drastically to levels below US$600. Like what happened with GDP, after the inclusive government, the GDP per capita took an upward trend. However, the increase was short-lived as the trend turned downwards after 2014.  What these numbers tell us is that an average Zimbabwean is much poorer today (in relative terms) than a person who lived in 1975 (by about 35%). This is to say, if an average Zimbabwean earned US$1,000 in 1975, the same person is now earning US$650.

The recent decline in economic growth is attributed to poor land redistribution policies that greatly contributed to a decrease in agriculture output’s contribution to GDP from about a high of 24% to about 13% in 2015. Manufacturing (in general) contributes about 28% to GDP saw a dramatic decline due to a drop in capacity utilisation driven by falling demand and increased uncertainty. The service sector has managed to strive contributing about 59%. This goes to show that in a period of more than 50 years, the leaders of the country and the policy makers were busy crafting and implementing policies that were not only unsuccessful but highly effective at running down the economy

After independence from Britain in 1980, the gross capital formation (GCF) as a percentage of GDP ranged between 15% and 24% for the years up to and including 1995. The Zimbabwe government led by Robert Gabriel Mugabe gave less priority towards physical infrastructure investment which saw GCF tumble from a high of 24% of GDP in 1994 to about 3% of GDP in 2006. However, when the economy showed some signs of improvement after 2008, GCF to GDP ratio increased but that was also short-lived as the ratio significantly decreased in 2012 to only 12% and the ratio has been hovering around 11-12% for the past 6 years.

If one is to walk down the streets of Zimbabwe, it is impossible for one not to notice the depth at which physical assets have depreciated in the country, let alone, a stagnant accumulation of capital investment in the country. The roads are in extremely poor state, the buildings (housing and office infrastructure) have depreciated beyond suitability for human occupation (at least most of them). The railway lines and railway transport are near non-existence, the electricity generation for the country has failed to increase the required capacity to meet the country’s electricity needs. Moreover, the existing methods or equipment currently being used at the power station are not only using archaic technology, but also are in very poor shape that disruption of electricity generation is a daily norm. The distribution system is in sheer need of a facelift. Waterborne diseases such as cholera are on an increase due to poor water purification systems across many (if not all) cities/towns in the country. Zimbabwe still uses the same old pipes from the 1970s to distribute its water and water supply interruptions are the order of the day. Investments in internet technology have also been lagging behind most developing economies.

Notwithstanding the 1982-83 and the 1992 drought, the value added as a proportion of GDP went down, on the average, compared to their 1960 levels. The value added as a percentage of GDP was at its worst level in 1992 due to the likely effects of the worst drought in living memory of Zimbabwe. The figure for that year is very close to that of 2014, even in the absence of drought, which explains how the economy has deteriorated over the years.

Except a significant decrease in expenditure in 2007-2008, the government expenditure has been trending upwards, increasing from a low of 11% in 1965 to 25% in 2016. Given the decrease in capital expenditure by the Zimbabwe government, it indicates that most of government expenditure is funding recurrent expenditure, something which is not sustainable over the longer term.

Website link for Tutsirai Sakutukwa: https://sites.google.com/site/tutsisakutukwa/home

Website link for Marshall Makate: https://econmakfaraim.wordpress.com/

On why the rural vote matters for Zimbabwe

On 30 July 2018, Zimbabwe will be getting to the polls to decide the leadership it entrusts to move its nation forward. In this short article, we re-iterate the significance of this election from a public health policy perspective, focusing on the health and well-being of the next generation. We briefly highlight the key and current statistics regarding child health outcomes (i.e. in terms of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality). These child health outcomes, are globally considered essential markers of the overall health of a society (especially the infant mortality rate) as highlighted in the Sustainable Development Goal – # 3.

Neonatal mortality is the probability that an infant dies before reaching the age of one month while infant mortality is the probability that a child dies before reaching the age of one year (12 months). Under-five mortality on the other hand represents the likelihood of a child dying before celebrating their fifth birthday of life (i.e. dying before reaching the age of five years). Below, we provide a brief summary of the current state of our child mortality outcomes as extracted from the nationally representative Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) 2015 report.

First, we show how child mortality has evolved over time since the 1980s for the country as a whole. The graph below is extracted from the ZDHS, 2015 report, and is shown as Figure 8.1 on page 132 of the report.

As the above figure shows, child mortality is still a big problem in Zimbabwe. Looking at neonatal and infant mortality, we can see that the current levels are actually worse than they were in the 1980s, which clearly signifies that we have not really progressed at all. For example, while 27 children for every 1,000 live births died within their first month of life in 1988, about 29 children per every 1,000 live births did not make it to their first month birthday in 2015. These statistics are still unacceptably high by any standards. Of course, looking at the data at the province level will reveal a completely different picture especially if we just focus on under-five mortality. Zooming into the data at the province level unmasks an even worrying and sad reality facing our very own children, the future of Zimbabwe.

Second, we show the distribution of under-five deaths across Zimbabwe’s ten provinces as reported in the 2015 ZDHS (i.e. figure 8.2 on page 133 of the ZDHS 2015 report).

The graph shows that, in terms of under-five mortality, the situation in the provinces is much dire. It is imperative to note that five of the ten provinces are well above the national under-five mortality average. For example, under-five mortality in Manicaland province stands at a staggering 112 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2015, a figure that is 62% above the national average. The question is why do we still have this many children dying before they even reach the age of five? If in some industrialized nations such as the United States for example, an under-five mortality rate of just 2.49 deaths per every 1,000 live births is considered totally unacceptable (Centres for Disease Control and Prevention), why should we (Zimbabwe) tolerate a child mortality rate that is about 30 times higher?

A careful review of the data also shows that child mortality is highly concentrated among Zimbabwe’s rural population (92 vs 60 deaths per every 1,000 live births in rural and urban, respectively) (see Table 8.2 on page 136 of the ZDHS 2015 report)  and among the very poor segments of the population. Given that about 60% or higher of Zimbabwe’s population resides in the rural areas, it is important that Zimbabwe vote wisely as we get to the polls. As can be seen from the figures above, the data suggests that, as a nation (in terms of child health), we are actually worse-off than we were more than 30 years ago. More specifically, the fact that our children are actually dying at a much faster rate before they even reach the age of 12 months than they did more than 30 years ago, before Zimbabwe’s Independence, speaks volumes and should not be acceptable.

From a public health policy perspective, we need the rural vote more than ever before, since we just cannot afford to continue on the above trajectories for child health outcomes. Children are the leaders of the future and any public policies that are not sensitive to the needs of this vulnerable and yet essential group is just not acceptable. This clearly highlights why the rural vote is so much pertinent, given that more than 60 percent of Zimbabwe's population resides here, the future of these children will be dictated by what the rural vote will decide. Now, is the time, Zimbabwe should awaken from its slumber, decide and be in control of its own destiny. If the premature (and otherwise preventable) deaths of many young and innocent children in  our beloved Zimbabwe does not move your heart and mind to at least vote wisely as a Zimbabwean citizen, then nothing will ever move you. Children are the future, and as such, deserve nothing but the very best of our care! A new and prosperous Zimbabwe is possible and must be judged on how best it will respond and address the delicate health needs of these children (what we call the voiceless). That is what we will call, in own humble opinions, a truly successful and progressive Zimbabwe, which is possible in our lifetime.

Website link for Marshall Makate: https://econmakfaraim.wordpress.com/ 
Website link for Tutsirai Sakutukwa: https://sites.google.com/site/tutsisakutukwa/home